AfD surges in eastern German state elections as governing parties suffer heavy losses

# AfD surges in eastern German state elections as governing parties suffer heavy losses

Event date: 2024-09-01

Projected results from the German state elections in Saxony and Thuringia showed the far-right Alternative for Germany making a major advance, while the parties that form Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s federal coalition suffered heavy losses.

DW’s results breakdown said the AfD came first in Thuringia and was on course for a strong result in Saxony. In Thuringia, the party became the first far-right force to win a state election in Germany since World War II. In Saxony, the party was close behind the Christian Democrats, underscoring how deeply the eastern states have shifted away from the political center.

The results matter well beyond the two state parliaments. DW describes the elections as barometers for next year’s federal contest and as a referendum on the national governing coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats. On that measure, the early verdict was grim for the parties in Berlin.

The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, a new party formed only in January 2024, emerged quickly as a major player. DW said it placed third in both states, ahead of the Left Party in Thuringia and with a visible presence in Saxony as well. That left the traditional left-wing parties squeezed from both sides: by the AfD on one flank and the BSW on the other.

The projected numbers point to difficult coalition arithmetic. In Thuringia, the AfD was on track for about 31 seats in an 88-seat parliament, enough to block some decisions even if other parties refused to govern with it. DW noted that other parties have ruled out coalition deals with the AfD, making outright government formation unlikely despite the party’s first-place finish.

The Greens’ failure to clear the threshold in Thuringia was another sign of the shift. In Saxony, the Christian Democrats were narrowly ahead, but the AfD’s vote share was close enough to force the establishment parties into a defensive posture. The report said the CDU, SPD and Greens, which had formed a so-called Kenya coalition in Saxony, all saw their support decline.

The political picture in eastern Germany has now become one of stable decline for the mainstream parties and steady advance for the AfD. DW said the AfD had roughly tripled its vote share in Thuringia over three election cycles, from around 10 percent in 2014 to more than 30 percent in 2024.

That pattern explains why the elections were viewed less as local contests than as a warning sign. If the results hold, they would demonstrate not just dissatisfaction with the federal government but a durable realignment in parts of the country where economic frustration, political alienation and distrust of national parties have combined for years.

For now, the projected outcome leaves Germany’s mainstream parties facing a familiar but sharper problem: the AfD is no longer only a protest force at the margins. In Thuringia, it has become the largest party in a state parliament for the first time, and in Saxony it has pushed itself into near parity with the CDU.