Germany recorded nearly 13% fewer births in 2023 than in 2021, according to an analysis by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research. The decline was substantially steeper in eastern German states, where births fell 17.5% over the same period.
The national total reached 693,000 births in 2023. Ifo researcher Joachim Ragnitz estimated that almost 80,000 fewer children were born across 2022 and 2023 than earlier trends would have suggested. The average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime, a measure commonly called the fertility rate, dropped from 1.58 in 2021 to 1.35 at the time of the report.
Researchers said the pattern had changed sharply during the preceding three years. They identified several possible pressures on decisions about starting or expanding a family, including the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia's war in Ukraine and high inflation. Ragnitz said increased living costs appeared to be prompting young families to postpone having children.
The report did not establish whether the decline represented a permanent reduction in intended family size or a temporary delay. That distinction matters for demographic projections: births postponed during a period of uncertainty could recover later, while a lasting change would produce a smaller generation and longer-term effects on schools, labor markets and social services.
The eastern German figures drew particular attention because their fall exceeded the national average by several percentage points. The supplied account did not provide a state-by-state breakdown or identify a single cause for the regional difference. Ragnitz's work focused on demographic change in eastern Germany, but the report's national measure showed that falling births were not confined to the east.
Germany had experienced the opposite movement earlier in the previous decade. From 2011 to 2016, the fertility rate rose from 1.39 to 1.59. Researchers associated that increase partly with improved conditions for families with children and partly with the arrival of immigrant families whose fertility rates were higher. The more recent shift reversed much of that rise.
Ragnitz urged policymakers to watch the figures closely, particularly when making plans for daycare centers and schools. Infrastructure decisions based on outdated population expectations can create too many or too few places depending on whether births rebound.
The report therefore delivered a clear measurement but a less certain forecast. Germany had fewer births, a lower fertility rate and a disproportionately large eastern decline. Whether those numbers reflected changed lifetime plans or delayed decisions remained unresolved, making continued observation central to any policy response.
