On the event date, May 7, 2025, 133 Catholic cardinals began voting in the Sistine Chapel to choose a new pope, opening what The Guardian described as the largest conclave ever held. The gathering follows the death of Pope Francis at age 88 and brings together a college of electors that is both geographically diverse and deeply divided over the church's future.
The cardinals spent the days before the vote in pre-conclave meetings, where they tried to share their visions for the church and get to know one another better. Even so, some participants described the atmosphere as confused and hard to read. Ignatius Suharyo Hardjoatmodjo, the archbishop of Jakarta, said after hearing from dozens of cardinals that there had been many voices and not easy conclusions. That uncertainty is part of what makes the outcome so difficult to predict.
Once the voting began, the cardinals were cut off from the outside world. They were housed at Casa Santa Marta, had to hand over their phones and were permitted to move only between their lodging and the Sistine Chapel. Vatican staff assisting them, including cooks, cleaners, drivers and medics, also swore secrecy. There are four ballots each day, and smoke from a chimney atop the chapel signals whether the vote has produced a pope. Black smoke means no result; white smoke means the church has a new leader.
The list of possible successors is broad. Among the names often mentioned are Robert Prevost, a U.S. cardinal known for careful judgment and listening; Pietro Parolin, the Vatican secretary of state and a leading diplomat; and Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, often seen as a reformer and nicknamed the Asian Francis. The more progressive camp also includes Matteo Zuppi, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, Jean-Claude Hollerich, Timothy Radcliffe and Michael Czerny, while conservative figures include Peter Erdo and Robert Sarah. The fact that so many names remain in play underlines how open the race is.
Francis's legacy hangs over the voting. He left behind a church that is more global and more varied, but also one that disagrees sharply about reform, abuse accountability and the balance between tradition and change. Cardinals said privately that the next pope would need to unify a disoriented church and stay engaged with issues like evangelization and the abuse crisis. Commentators quoted by The Guardian said many electors want the conclave to be brief, perhaps lasting only three or four days.
The history of papal elections suggests that frontrunners do not always survive the successive rounds of voting. The old maxim that someone enters the conclave as pope and leaves as cardinal was recalled in the report, along with the example of Jorge Mario Bergoglio, who was not considered a leading contender in 2013 before emerging as Francis. That uncertainty makes the current vote both ceremonial and political: the cardinals know they are choosing not just a pope, but the tone and priorities of the Catholic Church for years to come.
What happens next will shape whether Francis's reform agenda continues, stalls or is narrowed. Even if the vote is short, the next pope will inherit a church that is global, divided and under pressure to show both unity and accountability.
