OPEC+ agreed on April 5, 2026, to raise oil production quotas for a second month in a row, but the group coupled that decision with a warning that the war-driven damage to energy assets and shipping routes could keep markets unstable. The move shows the cartel trying to balance pressure for more supply with the risk that conflict across the Middle East continues to shake the oil system.
According to AFP via France 24, the OPEC+ statement lifted quotas by 206,000 barrels per day from May. That was the same size increase the eight-country V8 group made the previous month. The members include Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman.
The cartel’s language was notable for what it chose to stress. It said repairing damaged facilities is costly and takes a long time, and warned that damage to energy infrastructure raises volatility and can hit global supplies well into the future. It also highlighted “the critical importance of safeguarding international maritime routes to ensure the uninterrupted flow of energy.”
The text did not directly name the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, but the conflict clearly shaped the backdrop. The excerpt says the fighting had roiled energy markets and pushed prices higher. Iran had also virtually halted ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz by threatening tankers, a choke point that normally carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.
That matters because even if producers can increase output on paper, they still need a route to market. The report notes that Iranian attacks had hit energy facilities in several neighbouring countries and that Ukraine had also been striking Russian oil infrastructure. In that environment, the question was not just how much oil OPEC+ could pump, but how reliably it could be exported.
The V8 statement added that actions undermining energy supply security, whether through attacks on infrastructure or disruption of international maritime routes, increase market volatility and make it harder to manage prices. It also praised countries that found alternate export routes, saying those moves helped reduce volatility.
The decision leaves OPEC+ in a familiar position: signalling some supply growth while acknowledging that the market is being driven by events well beyond its control. The larger message is that production quotas alone cannot restore stability when shipping lanes are threatened and facilities are under attack.
