The speed at which LNG tankers could safely enter and leave the Strait of Hormuz emerged as the main near-term constraint on QatarEnergy’s proposed production recovery. Although undamaged equipment at Ras Laffan was prepared for a rapid restart, reopening the waterway would not instantly restore the ships and loading activity required for exports.
A source familiar with the company’s plans told Reuters that facilities spared by Iranian attacks could regain their full production level in one month. Other reporting described a broader sequence in which Qatar would recover approximately half of total capacity within the first month and reach close to 80 percent after two months. Both projections excluded a damaged portion expected to remain unavailable much longer.
Iranian missiles struck two of the nation’s 14 liquefaction trains and one of two plants converting gas into liquids. The damage eliminated 17 percent of Qatar’s LNG export capability. Saad al-Kaabi, QatarEnergy’s chief executive, had estimated in March that restoration could require as much as five years and around $26 billion.
The remaining facilities were not primarily awaiting major repairs. They had stopped or reduced activity after war between Iran and the United States effectively closed Hormuz, the export passage serving the region’s LNG and oil industries. A Reuters source characterized the immediate difficulty as arranging vessel arrivals and loading operations rather than restarting gas production itself.
Shipping data underscored that problem. Since hostilities started in late February, only slightly more than 12 LNG carriers had succeeded in departing through the strait. Operators wanted assurances that navigation was secure, including evidence that mines had been removed. Establishing those conditions might keep normal traffic from returning for several weeks after a declared reopening.
Diplomacy supplied a possible route forward but not an immediate guarantee. Washington and Tehran had developed a framework covering an end to their conflict and restoration of navigation. They were expected to sign a memorandum in Switzerland later that week, though official details were not yet public. Qatar’s foreign minister voiced optimism that the document would permit LNG deliveries through Hormuz, while warning that the two combatants’ major disputes could not be settled in only a few days.
Nearly all LNG produced by Qatar comes from the Ras Laffan complex. The country accounts for roughly one-fifth of worldwide LNG supply, so delays would have consequences beyond the Gulf, particularly for consumers in Europe and Asia where no immediate substitute was identified.
QatarEnergy’s prospective recovery consequently divided into three timelines. Operational units could resume production rapidly. Safe and dependable tanker traffic might take weeks to normalize. Meanwhile, the capacity physically destroyed in the attacks faced a repair program measured in years. The target of around 80 percent after two months represented a substantial restoration, but not a return to the export system that existed before the strikes and closure.
